Qualification Scenarios: New Zealand's Victory Road From A Half-spot > Cricket News, cricinfo, mobilecric, cricbuzz, livescore and more
Cricket news - Qualification scenarios: New Zealand one win away from semifinal spot
While Australia became the first team to qualify for the semi-finals of the ICC Cricket World Cup 2019, hosts England find themselves in a spot after their two successive losses. Pakistan look more likely to make it to the final four than they did a week ago. After 33 matches down, South Africa and Afghanistan are the two sides that are out of contention for a semifinal spot. Here's the current situation, and what teams need to do in order to qualify:
Points table (at the end of Match# 33)
New Zealand: Kane Williamson's side faced the first defeat in their seventh game against a resurgent Pakistan side. They still have their fate in their own hands. A win in one of their remaining games is enough to go through. Should they lose against both Australia and England, then they end up with 11 points, and would want at least two of England, Sri Lanka and the winner of Pakistan-Bangladesh game to lose at least one of their remaining games. If that doesn't happen, they would need the unlikely event of India losing at least three of their four upcoming fixtures and end on a lower NRR than them.
India: With four wins and a no-result in five matches, India find themselves in the top half of the table. Two wins out of their remaining four games will assure them a semifinal spot and they are well in contention for a top of the table finish.
England: Sitting comfortably with eight points from their first five games, two untimely defeats since have put England's advance in jeopardy. They are set to play India and New Zealand and will be through should they win both those matches.
Should England win only one game, then all three of Sri Lanka, Bangladesh and Pakistan should lose at least one of their remaining matches. In such a scenario, Sri Lanka will end with a maximum of ten points, but England will pip them on the number of wins -- England will have five wins to Sri Lanka's four -- while Pakistan and Bangladesh can end up with a maximum of nine points.
It is mathematically possible for them to go through with eight points i.e. if they lose to both India and New Zealand, provided all of the three below scenarios occur:
Sri Lanka suffer defeat in at least two of their remaining three games and end on a maximum of eight points The game between Pakistan and Bangladesh ends in a stalemate and both lose their other remaining game (Pakistan play Afghanistan next and Bangladesh play India). Then all three sides will finish on eight points and England will advance by virtue of more wins (four to three). West Indies lose at one of their three remaining games and end on a maximum of seven points
Bangladesh: Mashrafe Mortaza's side has been one of the teams to watch out for in the tournament, landing killer blows to South Africa and West Indies during their journey. If they beat Pakistan and India in their last two games, they end with 11 points and would want either of the three scenarios to happen.
Both England and Sri Lanka should lose at least one more match and finish with a maximum of ten points New Zealand lose to both Australia and England and finish on a lower NRR than Bangladesh India lose at least three of their remaining matches and end up with a lower or same NRR as Bangladesh
It is unlikely that Bangladesh will go through with one win and nine points, despite the mathematical possibility, because of their negative NRR and a high probability of other teams getting to ten points.
Pakistan: After an upset win against England at the start of the tournament, Pakistan lost their way in the middle before wins against South Africa and New Zealand put them back in contention. Two matches remain for them and two wins should take them to 11 points. For them to qualify with 11 points, at least one of the below event must happen:
Both England and Sri Lanka should lose at least one more match and finish with a maximum of ten points New Zealand lose to both Australia and England, and finish on a lower or same NRR as Pakistan India lose at least three of their remaining matches and end up with a lower NRR than Pakistan
If they win only one more game, it will be tough for them to advance due to a negative NRR and a high probability of other teams getting to ten points.
Sri Lanka: It was the island nation's unexpected win over England which gave the teams in the bottom half of the table a fresh lease of life. Sri Lanka are on six points and are competing directly with England as these two sides could end up on the same points. If Sri Lanka win all their three games, they would just need England to lose at least one of their two matches, considering the hosts have more win than Sri Lanka should a tie on points happen.
If Sri Lanka win only two out of three, they would end on ten points and then they would need England to lose to both India and New Zealand; and both Bangladesh and Pakistan should lose at least one match each and finish on a maximum of nine points.
If Sri Lanka lose at least two matches, they stand eliminated.
West Indies: After a win in their opening fixture against Pakistan, West Indies have remained winless in the tournament. They are slotted to play against India on Thursday in a must-win encounter. Should they lose at least one more game, they stand eliminated. If they win all their remaining games (India, Sri Lanka and Afghanistan), then they would end with nine points and would need other results to go their way to go through.
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