Qualification Scenarios: Sri Lanka's Fate Out Of His Control > Cricket News, cricinfo, mobilecric, cricbuzz, livescore and more
Cricket news - Qualification scenarios: Sri Lanka's fate beyond their control
With a week to go in the league phase, we have five teams competing for the three remaining semifinal spots. Australia has already sealed a berth with two matches in hand while India and New Zealand are just a point away from locking theirs. England, one of the pre-tournament favourites, face the prospect of getting dismissed from their own party should their two-match losing streak continue. The hosts are competing with Pakistan, Bangladesh, and Sri Lanka for a knockout spot.
Here's what teams need to do in order be part of the final four:
Points table (at the end of Match 35):
India: With five wins and a no-result in six matches, India finds themselves in the top half of the table. A win in one of the three remaining games will assure them a semifinal spot and they are well in contention for a top of the table finish.
New Zealand: Kane Williamson's side faced the first defeat in their seventh game against a resurgent Pakistan side. They still have their fate in their own hands - a point is all they need for them to go through. Should they lose against both Australia and England (they end with 11 points), they would want either England to lose to India or the winner of Pakistan-Bangladesh game end on a lower NRR than theirs, provided they win their other remaining match (Pakistan play Afghanistan next and Bangladesh play India).If that doesn't happen, they would need India losing all three of their upcoming fixtures and end on a lower NRR than New Zealand.
England: Sitting comfortably with eight points from their first five games, two untimely defeats since have put England's advance in jeopardy. They are set to play India and New Zealand and will be through should they win both those matches.
Should England win only one game, then they would need both Bangladesh and Pakistan to lose at least one of their remaining matches. In such a scenario, England will finish with ten points while Pakistan and Bangladesh can end up with a maximum of nine points. Even if Sri Lanka beat both West Indies and India and get to ten points, that won't suffice as England will have more wins (five) to Sri Lanka's four.
It is mathematically possible for them to go through with eight points i.e. they lose to both India and New Zealand, provided both the below scenarios occur:
- Sri Lanka suffer defeat in at least in one of the two games left and end on a maximum of eight points
- The game between Pakistan and Bangladesh end in a stalemate and both lose their other remaining game (Pakistan play Afghanistan next and Bangladesh play India). Then all three sides will finish with eight points and England advance by virtue of more wins (four to three each).
Bangladesh: Mashrafe Mortaza's side have been one of the teams to watch out for in the tournament, landing killer blows to South Africa and West Indies during their journey. If they beat Pakistan and India in their last two games, they end with 11 points and would want one of the three scenarios to happen.
- England lose at least one more match and finish with a maximum of ten points
- New Zealand lose to both Australia and England and finish on a lower NRR than Bangladesh
- India lose all three of their remaining matches and end up with a lower or same NRR as Bangladesh
- For Bangladesh to go through with nine points, England should lose both their matches, Sri Lanka should lose one more and Pakistan lose at least one of theirs and finish with a lower NRR than Bangladesh
Pakistan: After an upset win against England at the start of the tournament, Pakistan lost their way in the middle before wins against South Africa and New Zealand put them back in contention. Three matches remain for them and three wins should take them to 11 points. For them to qualify on 11 points, at least one of the below events must happen:
- England should lose at least one more match and finish with a maximum of ten points
- New Zealand lose to both Australia and England and finish on a lower or same NRR as Pakistan
- India lose all three of their remaining matches and end up with a lower NRR than Pakistan
- For Pakistan to go through with nine points, England should lose both their matches, Sri Lanka should lose one more and Bangladesh lose at least one of theirs and finish with a lower NRR than Pakistan
Sri Lanka: It was the island nation's unexpected win over England which gave the teams in the bottom half of the table a fresh lease of life. However, the defeat against South Africa has put them on the brink of an exit. Sri Lanka are on six points and are competing directly with England as these two sides could end up with the same points.
If England win at least one of their remaining games, Sri Lanka will stand eliminated irrespective of their results against West Indies and India.
If Sri Lanka beat both West Indies and India, they would end on ten points and then they would need England to lose to both India and New Zealand and both Bangladesh and Pakistan should lose at least one match each and finish on a maximum of nine points.
If Sri Lanka lose at least one of their remaining matches, they stand eliminated.
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