Qualification Scenarios: Pakistan, The Pressure On England, With Afghanistan, Earning > Cricket News, cricinfo, mobilecric, cricbuzz, livescore and more
Cricket news - Qualification scenarios: Pakistan keep the pressure on England with Afghanistan win
We're into the final week of the league stage at the 2019 World Cup, with Australia already having sealed their semifinal spot. For the three vacant positions at 2,3 and 4, there is a six-way jostle between India, New Zealand, England, Pakistan, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka. While India need just one win in three games, the situation for the rest of sides is not as straightforward.
Points table (at the end of Match 37):
Here's what teams need to do in order be part of the final four:
New Zealand: A second successive defeat - to Australia on Saturday - leaves New Zelaand in a queasy position. To retain their fate with themselves, they are in need of a single point from their last game - but that comes against hosts England, who too will be in a desperate scramble for vital points to make it to the semis.
Should New Zealand lose to England, they will end with 11 points, and would want either England to lose to India or the winner of Pakistan-Bangladesh game end on a lower NRR than theirs. If Bangladesh win that game, New Zealand will need them to also win their other game - against India. As it stands, New Zealand's NRR is +0.572 while Pakistan have -0.792 and Bangladesh have -0.133.
If that doesn't happen, they would need India to lose all three of their upcoming fixtures and end on a lower NRR than them.
England: Pakistan's win over Afghanistan nudged Eoin Morgan's side out of the top-four, and leaves them with quite the most challenging four days ahead. Two wins - against India on Sunday, and New Zealand on Wednesday (July 3) will seal their berth in the last-four.
Should England win only one game, then they'd need Bangladesh to lose to India and beat Pakistan. In such a scenario, England will finish with ten points while Pakistan and Bangladesh can end up with a maximum of nine points. Even if Sri Lanka beat both West Indies and India and get to ten points, that won't suffice as England will have more wins (five to Sri Lanka's four).
It is mathematically possible for England to go through with eight points i.e. they lose to both India and New Zealand, provided both the below scenarios occur:
- Sri Lanka suffer defeat in at least in one of the two games left and end on a maximum of eight points
- The game between Pakistan and Bangladesh end in a stalemate and both lose their other remaining game (Pakistan play Afghanistan next and Bangladesh play India). Then all three sides will finish with eight points and England advance by virtue of more wins (four to three each).
Pakistan: After an upset win against England at the start of the tournament, Pakistan lost their way in the middle before wins against South Africa, New Zealand and Afghanistan put them back in contention. Two matches remain for them and two wins should take them to 11 points. For them to qualify on 11 points, at least one of the below events must happen:
- England should lose at least one more match and finish with a maximum of ten points
- India lose all three of their remaining matches and end up with a lower NRR than Pakistan
- For Pakistan to go through with nine points, England should lose both their matches, Sri Lanka should lose one more and Bangladesh lose at least one of theirs and finish with a lower NRR.
Bangladesh: Mashrafe Mortaza's side have been one of the teams to watch out for in the tournament, landing killer blows to South Africa and West Indies during their journey. If they beat Pakistan and India in their last two games, they end with 11 points and would want one of the three scenarios to happen:
- England lose at least one more match and finish with a maximum of ten points
- New Zealand lose to England and finish on a lower NRR than Bangladesh
- India lose all three of their remaining matches and end up with a lower or same NRR as Bangladesh
- For Bangladesh to go through with nine points, their one win should come against Pakistan while England should lose both their remaining games and Sri Lanka should lose at least one of their last two games - against West Indies and India.
Sri Lanka: It was the island nation's unexpected win over England which gave the teams in the bottom half of the table a fresh lease of life. However, the defeat against South Africa has put them on the brink of an exit. Sri Lanka are on six points and are competing directly with England as these two sides could end up with the same points.
If England win at least one of their remaining games, Sri Lanka will stand eliminated irrespective of their results against West Indies and India.
If Sri Lanka beat both West Indies and India, they would end on ten points. They'd then need Bangladesh to lose to India but beat Pakistan so that both Bangladesh and Pakistan finish a point short of Sri Lanka's tally.
If Sri Lanka lose at least one of their remaining matches, they stand eliminated.
India: With five wins and a no-result in six matches, India find themselves in the top half of the table. A win in one of the three remaining games (vs England, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka) will assure them a semifinal spot and they are well in contention for a top of the table finish.
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