Cricket News By TODAYLIVESCORE.INFO - Qualification scenarios: Advantage New Zealand in SFs race but India still alive. India need two more big wins and a few other results to go their way to make the semis
India need two more big wins and a few other results to go their way to make the semis
GROUP 1
England
With four wins in as many games and a healthy net run rate, England have one foot in the knockouts already with a game in hand. If Australia loses one of their two remaining games, England will be through even before they play their last game. The only way England can be eliminated is if they lose by a margin of around 80 runs to South Africa and Australia win their last two matches by a combined aggregate of around 165 runs. In that scenario, all three of England, South Africa, and Australia will be tied on four wins each and England will be knocked out on net run rate.
Remaining game: vs South Africa, Sharjah, Nov 6
South Africa
After a losing start, South Africa have been on a roll winning three in a row and a win in their final league game against England should see them through thanks to their superior net run rate of 0.742 compared to Australia's -0.627, the other team that can get to eight points. If South Africa lose to England and Australia win their two remaining games, South Africa will be eliminated. If South Africa lose to England, but Australia manage to win only one, they will be tied on six points with South Africa and possibly West Indies (if Australia beat Bangladesh and West Indies beat both Australia and Sri Lanka) which would most likely end in South Africa's favour thanks to their superior net run rate.
Remaining game: vs England, Sharjah, Nov 6
Australia
After two wins to set off their campaign, Australia now finds themselves on the back foot after a crushing defeat to archrivals England which saw their net run rate plummet to -0.627. Their ideal case scenario is them beating both Bangladesh and West Indies, and South Africa losing to England. If South Africa manage to get the better of England, even two wins might not suffice for Australia because of South Africa's higher net run rate. Another scenario Australia could find themselves is three teams – Australia, South Africa, and West Indies – tied on six points each and net run rate coming to be the decider. As of how things stand, South Africa are best placed to progress if net run rate is the decider.
Remaining games: vs Bangladesh, Dubai, Nov 4; vs West Indies, Abu Dhabi, Nov 6
West Indies
Starting as one of the pre-tournament favourites, West Indies never really got going in the tournament. Their net run rate of -1.598 is the worst in Group 1 and the only way they could progress is if they can win their final two games by a combined aggregate of around 95 runs, England beat South Africa by around 50 runs and Australia beat Bangladesh, not by more than 40 runs. If they drop one of their remaining games or if South Africa beat England, the defending champions will stand eliminated.
Remaining games: vs Sri Lanka, Abu Dhabi, Nov 4; vs Australia, Abu Dhabi, Nov 6
GROUP 2
New Zealand
New Zealand is best placed in Group 2 to join Pakistan in the knockouts. If they win all their remaining matches, they are through irrespective of other results. If they lose to Afghanistan and beat Namibia, they will be tied on six points each with both Afghanistan and India if India wins their two remaining matches. As of how things stand, Afghanistan (+1.481) has a better net run rate than both India (+0.073) and New Zealand (+0.816). If New Zealand lose to Afghanistan by one run (when chasing 160), they will need to beat Namibia by 71 runs (after scoring 160) to stay ahead of Afghanistan's net run rate, though India can still pip them if they beat Scotland and Namibia by a combined aggregate of 108 runs (if they score 160 batting first on each occasion).
Remaining games: vs Namibia, Sharjah, Nov 5; vs Afghanistan, Abu Dhabi, Nov 7
Afghanistan
Afghanistan have done themselves a big favour by beating Scotland and Namibia by huge margins and giving their net run rate a massive boost. The big defeat against India has shaved off a massive chunk of their enviable net run rate and now they have to beat New Zealand on Sunday to stay in contention. If they beat New Zealand and both India and New Zealand win their remaining fixtures, all three teams tied on six points each and net run rate will come into picture. Afghanistan currently have a better net run rate than both India and New Zealand, but things could change depending upon the margin of wins.
Remaining games: vs New Zealand, Abu Dhabi, Nov 7
India
India is breathing somewhat better after the thumping 66-run win against Afghanistan that has put their Net Run Rate in the positive territory. Even then their fate is now not in their own hands and would need a favour from either Afghanistan or Namibia in beating New Zealand. India's best chance is getting tied at six points with New Zealand and Afghanistan and go through by virtue of a higher net run rate. India plays the last league game of the group and will have the advantage of knowing the exact equation ahead of that fixture.
Remaining games: vs Scotland, Dubai, Nov 5; vs Namibia, Dubai, Nov 7
Namibia
Namibia has lost two of their first three games and they can qualify only if they beat both New Zealand and India by massive margins so that their net run rate is ahead of that of both Afghanistan and New Zealand. Namibia's net run rate is -1.600 and would need to their last two matches by a combined aggregate of 100+ runs just to get their net run rate to the positive territory.
